Tuesday’s landslide victory of Republican Mark Amodei over Democrat Kate Marshall could mean more than just who represents the northern part of the state in Congress for the next 18 months it could also mean that far from being an in play purple state, Nevada has gone back red at least for the 2012 presidential election.
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While few pundits expected Marshall to win in the Republican leaning north, the scale of her defeat garnering just 36 percent of the vote was staggering. This was the district that Barack Obama lost by just 100 votes in 2008 and that Marshall herself narrowly lost in 2010 in her successful state wide race for Treasurer in 2010. And on paper at least Marshall did look good in the months before the special election. While she did lose the north by less than 2.0 percent she did win Washoe County by 6,000 votes.
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This time around it wasn’t even close. Amodei cruised to victory in Washoe County with 52 percent of the vote and by the time the last vote was in Washoe’s 41 percent was the best Marshall could do. In most rural counties she garnered between 20 to 30 percent of the vote and even in the Las Vegas suburbs of Clark and Nye Counties she failed to break into the 40’s.
Traditionally the Democratic play book for winning a state wide contest in Nevada is simple keep it close in the north and landslide the south. The scope of Amodei’s victory in the special election could mean very rough sailing for Barack Obama if he wants to repeat his 2008 victory when he garnered 55 percent of the vote.
“That simply is not going to happen again,” said Nevada Assemblyman John Ellison R-Elko. “Nevada in 2012 is not the same as 2008, neither is the country.”
While a terrible economy has certainly figured into the falling prospect for Democrats, in rural Nevada at least the decline of party predates the Great Recession.
In less than three years Elko Democrats went from being at the center of their party’s and the national media’s attention when they gave Barrack Obama one of his first wins in his ultimately successful race to the White House to an all but extinct third party who could not field any candidate on the county ballot.
For the first time in history there was not a single Democrat running for any county wide seat in Elko. And while Elko is an extreme example the dearth of Democratic candidates throughout rural Nevada has never been more apparent than he 2010 election. If it continues the extinction of the Democrats from the rural ballot could call into question the statewide party’s ability to govern in the future.
“They aren’t in any danger of being decertified as a major party,” said Janine Hansen of the Independent American Party. “They still have well over 100,000 registered voters. But the fact no Democrat even bothers to file for a local office does send a message.”
Democrat Mike McFarlane who was the lone Democrat on the Elko County Ballot and one of just three Democrat on the Humboldt County Ballot.
McFarlane finished a distant third in the race behind GOP winner John Ellison and second place hansen.
“I filed to run because nobody else would,” McFarlane who is the Vice President for Academic Affairs at Great Basin College. “When I did I got a call from the local party chairman asking who I was.”
Apart from a one day visit from a state party rural coordinator and access to the state party’s data base, McFarlane said he received no other support from the Nevada Democratic Party in the race.
“They haven’t given me any financing that’s for sure.” McFarlane added.
The vast majority of party money and in fun raising efforts this election went to save the seat of Senate majority leader Harry Reid who defeated Sharron Angle. The Reid /Angle race also drew away funding from other statewide races at the expense of other Democrats.
While the senate race explains why the lack of funding in other races, it does not explain the lack of interest among Democrats from seeking office in the rural sections of the state.
Indeed most local races rarely get even a symbolic amount from the state party and are mostly self financed. It is the fact that not a single Elko County registered Democrat could be bothered to file for any kind of office sends the message that rural residents of the state have abandoned their party and are Democrats in name only.
This trend is apparent not only in Nevada but in whole swaths of the country. While still dominant in most urban areas, most nationwide polling suggest that Democrats are virtually extinct in the rurals and at least a threatened if not endangered political species in the suburbs.
The reality of 2010 is a far cry from 2008 when the party was able to capture the White House and expand its majorities in both houses of Congress by cobbling together message that appeal to liberals and moderates.
However with record deficits, health care, cap and trade not to mention a foreign policy that is to many Americans foreign, Democrats are in danger of losing all but only the urban areas of the country, not only in this election but for generations. And even in the cities the party’s is being challenge.
In Las Vegas for example with Democrats ahead over 60 percent in registration, there will still be a Republican to challenge for every single office on the ballot and in some cases win.
If this trend continues, while there may be Democrats in rural Nevada there won’t be any elected Democrat in any rural office.
National Democrats may be more than a little nervous over what happened in Nevada yesterday. Marshall ran in the rural district as a conservative Democrat, out raised Amodei nearly 2 to 1- and lost by over 20 points. Amodei, on the other hand, ran against Barack Obama and Washington Democrats. One of his campaign ads charged, “We were promised recovery. We’ve been given misery. Let’s get Washington’s attention.” Another ad said Marshall would be a “rubber stamp” for Obama.
Furthermore, Nevada’s unemployment rate has been among the highest in the nation during the last few years. Obama didn’t do himself any favors when he seemingly disparaged the gambling industry in Las Vegas last year. Dissatisfaction with Obama wasn’t enough to topple Harry Reid last fall, but things have only gotten worse.